A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
